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If this helps at all, I used a set of Marathon Plus tires on a cross-Canada tour last year (8200km), plus a bunch of commutting, totaling about 11,000km. I did not get any flats at any point, but by the end of that distance, the rear tire was pretty bald and I decided to stop using it. Here's a picture of the tires around 10,000km, front tire on the left ...


I replace mine when I start getting punctures. That's normally some time after I have a strip of blue all the way round, and before there's more than just odd spots of black showing through the blue. I've done that with several of them, and it seems to be pretty consistent. But as Steve says, four or five years might also be a good time to replace them, but ...


In my experience, tires should be replaced after 4-5 years, regardless of # of miles/KM. The rubber dries out, cracks, and it is easier for debris to puncture old rubber.

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