My LBS claims that Shimano's 10 speed groups are going away forever. They told me that if I don't upgrade to 11 speed that my next replacement will cost me an arm and a leg because 10 speed components will cost more due to a shortage. I've googled and checked here but found nothing to support their claim. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong place to get my news, so is Shimano discontinuing 10 speed road bike components, and should I just upgrade/get a new road bike to future proof my rides?

Bike: 2007 Specialized Tarmac Expert Duo

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    Why not wait until (if) that is the case? I don't see how upgrading to 11 speed now will save you money upgrading to 11 speed when (if) 10 speed goes up in price. Hamfisted upselling IMO. – alex May 13 '16 at 9:35
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    You need to change from spending money at a cycling shop to patronising an LBS. If the shop's bullshitting you like this, its for their financial gain and your detriment. They're playing you for a sucker, and doing a poor job of it. – Criggie May 13 '16 at 11:59
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    @Criggie - these is absolutely nothing special about LBS. They are businesses like any other. This worship really needs to stop. – Davor May 13 '16 at 14:46
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    You could buy a new cassette (if necessary, with different gearing), a new chain, new chainrings (if necessary) and a rear derailleur (if necessary depending on the cassette; Shimano 7-9 speed mountain rear derailleurs will work) for way less than even the shifters of a 11 speed group (if you're lucky, probably the whole thing will run less than 100 dollars). – Batman May 13 '16 at 15:58
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    Well, you could have saved a bit more by going for a cheaper cassette + chain. Chains are generally good for 2-5k miles (buy a 10 dollar chain checker, e.g. from Park Tool or use a ruler), and each cassette 3-4 chains depending on who you ask. So if its lasting a few years, you need to ride more. – Batman May 13 '16 at 17:03

They're trying to sell you stuff. More expensive stuff (have you looked at 11 speed consumable (chain+cassette) prices vs 10 speed?). I would not bother upgrading.

As groups go to higher and higher speeds, the older stuff gets pushed down to lower component levels. So today's 11 speed 105 group will be next year's (or likely a few years later) Tiagra group (with some minor modifications). They're generally completely compatible with the previous higher end stuff. The price might change a little bit higher or little bit lower, but it won't be bank breaking (in fact, I'd guess it will go lower, at least for a few years). And let me remind you that we still have an 8 speed road group, despite 8 speed being 20+ years past introduction (heck, 9 speed is nearly 20 years old and we still have a ton of parts on the market from shifters,cassettes and derailleurs; 10 speed is only a mere 12-ish years old; 7 speed stuff is still in abundance, though finding quality components has started the incentive to move 8 speed).

So, you should be good for quite a while sticking with the 10 speed stuff. Unless you need the shiniest fanciest stuff for some reason. Plus, if you do decide to go 11 speed for some reason later, it will be cheaper than doing it now.

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    If you buy a new bike it will likely have 11 speeds, but if you need to replace broken parts (say a rear derailleur) you'll still find 10 speed parts for a long time. – Carel May 13 '16 at 7:46
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    OT: Wow! It's really been 20 years since 8-speed cassettes came out? I have a very valuable museum piece hanging in the garage with its 6-speed freewheel at the back end. I could even (if I could find parts) change just one cog! – FreeMan May 13 '16 at 14:12
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    If you're buying a new bike at the 105 or above level. Claris is 8, Sora is 9 , Tiagra is 10 and 10 speed 105 is still sold (and current, in conjunction with 11 speed 105). I'd guess the bulk of non-BSO bikes being bought are in those ranges and will most likely be 9/10 speed. As for the dates, they assume Shimano, and are rough guides. I think 8 speed is closer to 25 at this point than 20. – Batman May 13 '16 at 14:45
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    There's an interesting timeline of Shimano groupsets on Wikipedia - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimano#Road_groupsets – Tom77 May 13 '16 at 19:14
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    Yeah, Shimano is in the business of making things obsolete. – Daniel R Hicks May 13 '16 at 21:50

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